Current Events and Israel Prophecy

Focus On the Middle East

Tom Chapman — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 19:27:40 +0000

For the week beginning April 16, 2012

This week, for all the headlines cited below, please join us in proclaiming THIS DECREE:

“Not unto us, O LORD, not unto us, but unto Your name give glory, for Your mercy, and for Your truth’s sake. Why should the nations say, Where is their God? But our God is in the heavens. He has done whatever He has pleased.” (Psalm 115:1-3)

1. Barak: Talks bought Iran 5 weeks for nuke work – Jerusalem Post

Iran bought five weeks for its nuclear program through talks with the P5+1 group of world powers, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with CNN’s Kristiana Amanpour on Thursday. The first round of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany took place last weekend in Istanbul, with a second round of talks scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad.

2. PM: Israel obligated to prevent nuclear-armed Iran – Jerusalem Post

It is the world’s duty to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear arms, but first and foremost it is Israel’s obligation, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday at the state’s Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at Yad Vashem.

3. Settlers in West Bank outpost build new homes on private Palestinian land - Ha’aretz

Some 20 homes that have been built in the Mitzpeh Cramim outpost during the past year could spark a similar coalition crisis to the one recently created by the Ulpana neighborhood in the settlement of Beit El, according to sources in the defense establishment.

4. a) Egyptian presidential front-runner promises tougher line on Israel – Times of Israel

Egyptian presidential front-runner Amr Moussa pledged to adopt a tougher stance on Israel than his predecessor Hosni Mubarak if elected president next month.

b) Media Reveal the Muslim Brotherhood’s True Face – Front Page Mag

Muslim Brotherhood Calls for a ‘United Arab States’ with Jerusalem as its Capital.

5. Israel marks Holocaust Remembrance Day with siren, memorial services – Ha’aretz

Israelis across the nation paused in memory of the six million Jews killed during the Holocaust, as a siren sounded throughout Israel on Thursdays.

6. Netanyahu links Holocaust to Iranian threat – Ynet News

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that people who dismiss the Iranian threat as a whim or an exaggeration “have learnt nothing from the Holocaust.”

7. In Gaza, Hamas rule has not turned out as many expected – Washington Post

The militant Islamist movement surged to a surprise victory in Palestinian elections in 2006 with promises of clean governance and a reputation for terrorist tactics against Israel, which had withdrawn from Gaza the year before. But after five years of Hamas administration, many in this besieged strip say it has lived up to neither. Hamas is fast losing popularity, and recent surveys indicate that it would not win if elections were held in Gaza today.

8. US: Torture law doesn’t apply to PLO, PA – Jerusalem Post

The Palestinian Authority and PLO cannot be sued under a 1991 US victim protection law over the alleged torture of an American in a West Bank prison, the Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday, holding that the law only applies to individuals.

9. In Egyptian Democracy a blow to peace – Bill Wilson

The man who occupies the Oval Office has done a great disservice to the free world by assisting the Muslim Brotherhood in overthrowing the Egyptian government in favor of democracy. Not that representative government is bad, its just that Islamic extremists have caught on to using democracy to legitimately establish radical Sharia Law governments hostile to the United States, Israel and worldwide peace in general. The Bush Administration was the first to prove this by demanding elections in Gaza–Bush even pressured Israel to remove Israelis from Gaza, in effect, setting up a so-called democratically elected Palestinian state in Gaza. Only problem is the people elected terrorists to represent them.

The current White House has perfected the worst aspects of the previous administration by actually taking sides with a known terrorist supporting group, the Muslim Brotherhood, and helping foment revolution throughout the Middle East, destabilizing the entire region, driving oil prices extremely higher. The situation in Egypt is a prime example. Elections there comfortably established the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party in control of the country. Now the Muslim Brotherhood has two of the three candidates locked down in the elections for president. One is the Freedom and Justice Party’s nominee Mohammed Morsi. The other is a former Muslim Brotherhood member Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh.

The third candidate is the former foreign minister Amr Moussa, who many say is the frontrunner. Moussa was also the leader of the Arab League for a decade. He recently released his 80 page political program, which according to the Times of Israel, is hostile to Isreal. Moussa writes that “all forms of political, economic and legal support must be given to Palestinians in their struggle for rights.” Moussa met with Hamas in 2010 as the secretary-general of the Arab League. He has been a longstanding critic of both the US and Israel. He took the Bush Administration to task for not recognizing Hamas in Gaza, he is a proponent of Jerusalem as the capital of a palestinian state, and is friendly to Iran.

Representative government requires moral and ethical participation by the citizen population. Trouble is, Islam is neither. A lot of people were manipulated into believing that peace and freedom would come with democracy. Irrespective of who is elected as President of Egypt, the bad guys are in charge thanks to the American president, the United Nations and the European Union all working in the name of peace. Jeremiah 8:15 says, “We looked for peace, but no good came; and for a time of health, and behold trouble.” Yeshua said in Matthew 5:9, “Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of YHVH.” But how can peace come from establishing the violent in the seats of authority? Only by the LORD.

10. Iranian nuclear scientists were present at failed North Korean missile launch, says source – Ha’aretz

A dozen Iranian nuclear experts visited North Korea last week to observe its failed rocket launch on Friday, South Korean state news agency Yonhap’s Washington correspondent reported on Sunday. Pyongyang has claimed that the launch was meant to place a communications satellite in space, but the U.S., Japan, South Korea and other nations view it as part of North Korea’s attempt to advance its military ballistic missile capacity.

11. FM slams Abbas on day of Netanyahu, PA meeting – Jerusalem Post

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said Tuesday that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was not interested in reaching a peace agreement with Israel. Speaking during a visit to Cyprus, he said that the Palestinians spend time blaming Israel rather than working to solve their own internal problems.

12. Netanyahu, Fayyad to meet in Jerusalem – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will meet Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in Jerusalem on Tuesday for the highest-level meeting between the two sides in nearly 20 months, and the first ever meeting between the two men.

13. Barak: No promises made to refrain from attacking Iran – Jerusalem Post

Israel has not made any commitment to Washington that it will not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities during during its negotiations with the West, Defense Minister Ehud Barak emphasized Tuesday morning.

14. Hamas leader admits ‘Palestinian’ identity is invented

US Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has come under a lot of fire for saying that the “Palestinians” are an invented people. Most have ridiculed Gingrich by pointing out there are clearly millions of Arabs living in so-called “Palestine.” But Gingrich wasn’t talking about the physical presence of those people today, but rather the national identity they have adopted and the fact that most had immigrated to the land not so long ago.

In a televised address on Al-Hekma TV last week, Hamas Minister of the Interior and of National Security Fathi Hammad basically backed up Gingrich’s assessment, acknowledging that the roots of most “Palestinians” are elsewhere in the Middle East, and that the Palestinian label is only a thin veneer. Those pushing for a Palestinian state try to paint the Palestinian Arabs as somehow distinct from the Arabs round-about, and therefore in need of their own state. Not so, said Hammad.

“Every Palestinian, in Gaza and throughout Palestine, can prove his Arab roots – whether from Saudi Arabia, from Yemen, or anywhere. We have blood ties.” More than that, Hammad stated that the true regional background of most “Palestinians” is not in “Palestine.” “Brothers, half of the Palestinians are Egyptians and the other half are Saudis,” exclaimed the Hamas minister.

Hammad’s remarks were undoubtedly never intended for a Western audience. Rather, he was pleading with Egypt and other neighboring states to supply Hamas-ruled Gaza with free fuel, which Hammad said Hamas would use “in order to continue to wage Jihad.”

Israel Today Tuesday, April 13, 2012; Ryan Jones

15. Iran official: Nuclear talks must end economic sanctions – Ha’aretz

Iran on Sunday voiced hope that the next planned round of international talks about its nuclear program would lead to a lifting of sanctions upon it, the Fars news agency reported.

16. Afghanistan: Taliban insurgents attack embassies and Nato headquarters in Kabul – UK Telegraph

The Taliban said they and other militant groups were behind a coordinated assault in the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Sunday which included attacks on the British and German embassies in the heavily guarded, central diplomatic district.

17. Report: German ship carrying Iranian weapons to Syria stopped at sea – Ha’aretz

A German ship carrying Iranian weapons was stopped in the Mediterranean on Saturday, according to a report by Der Spiegel.

18. Palestinian inmates in Israel begin mass hunger strike – BBC

More than 1,200 Palestinian inmates held in Israeli jails have begun a hunger strike to protest against what they say are unfair prison conditions. Another 2,300 Palestinian detainees are refusing food for a day, the Israel Prisons Service (IPS) says. They are protesting against so-called “administrative detentions”, which allow suspects to be held indefinitely without charge or trial.

19. Jordanian parliament moves to ban Muslim Brotherhood party – Haaretz

Jordan’s parliament took legal measures on Monday to disqualify the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party, the country’s largest opposition movement. In a Lower House session, 46 out of 83 Jordanian lawmakers voted to add an item in the country’s draft political parties law forbidding the establishment of any political party on a “religious basis.”

20. Hamas War on Israel: 1,100 Missiles a Year – Israel National News

Hamas’ missile and rocket war on southern Israel is 11 years old today (Tuesday), 12,500 rockets later. More than 40 people have been killed, thousands have been wounded and property damage and economic losses has been immeasurable.

21. ISRAELI REPORT SAYS AIR FORCE GEARING UP FOR IRAN ATTACK

Says “moment of truth” is near

A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike. The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.

No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.” In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.

Ben-David said the Israel Air Force “does not have the capacity to destroy the entire Iranian program.” There will be no replication of the decisive strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 or on Syria in 2007, he said. “The result won’t be definitive.” But, a pilot quoted in the report said, the IAF will have to ensure that it emerges with the necessary result, with “a short and professional” assault.

Ben-David said that if negotiations break down, and Iran moves key parts of its nuclear program underground to its Qom facility, the IAF “is likely to get the order and to set out on the long journey to Iran.” (Times of Israel)

22. NON-CONSTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY ON IRAN

As expected, talks between the world powers and Iran ended on Saturday with a decision – not one that would suspend the enrichment of uranium or escalate economic sanctions – but one to hold another round of talks in five weeks. Israel may remain quiet until then and allow the West to try and get the job done. But if that doesn’t happen, the military option will move back to the front of the line right when the summer begins, a season that is favorable – due to clear skies – for a military strike.

Ultimately, Israeli defense officials are skeptical the talks will bear fruit. Iran is simply perceived to be close to the bomb and is not yet hurting enough, despite the unprecedented sanctions. Thursday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the Islamic Republic would not surrender its nuclear rights “even under the most difficult pressure.” Meanwhile, the Iranians are reportedly demanding an American and European commitment not to carry out a military attack on their country as long as the talks continue.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said recently he believes there is strong likelihood Israel will attack Iran before June – prior to Tehran entering what Israeli leaders have called a “zone of immunity,” a point beyond which it would no longer be possible to halt Iran’s nuclear advancement towards weapon-making. (Jerusalem Post/ /Ha’aretz)

23. ISRAEL’S PRIME MINISTER DISMISSIVE OF IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS

PM Benjamin Netanyahu voiced irritation on Sunday that the next session of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers would be held in more than a month’s time. “My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie. It’s got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition,” Netanyahu said during a meeting with US Senator Joseph Lieberman. “I think Iran should take immediate steps: first stop all enrichment, take out all the enriched material and dismantle the nuclear facility in Qom. I believe that the world’s greatest practitioner of terrorism must not have the opportunity to develop atomic bombs,” Netanyahu said. (Reuters)

24. ISRAELI P.M. TO PROPOSE TALKS WITH PALESTINIAN LEADER

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with a Palestinian delegation next week, [April 15] where he intends to propose direct talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The Palestinians have rarely agreed to direct talks with Israel since Netanyahu took office in 2009. The plan follows the latest aborted effort to jumpstart peace negotiations in discussions hosted by Jordan in January.

According to a press release from Netanyahu’s media advisor, Israel’s representative in talks with the Palestinians, attorney Yitzhak Molcho, is set to deliver the same message regarding direct talks in an upcoming meeting with Abbas. The press release said Molcho is also expected to give Abbas a letter “about Israel’s position regarding a future agreement with the Palestinians.”

The Israeli statement noted they welcomed the continued call from the Mideast Quartet – consisting of the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia – for direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians “without preconditions.” (Ezekiel 37:26-28)

The Palestinians have repeatedly demanded that Israel halt settlement activity and have called for Israel to accept the 1967 lines as the basis for negotiations. Israel did enact a 10-month partial settlement freeze that concluded in 2010. The Palestinians eventually commenced direct talks with Israel towards the end of the freeze, but suspended the talks after the moratorium ended. (Bridges for Peace)

25. EGYPT IS FOCUS OF ISRAELI SECURITY WORRIES

A former top intelligence officer and liaison with Egypt, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad . . warned that the ongoing political upheaval in Egypt and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood could spell trouble in the future. “I’m not hiding from you that we are concerned,” Gilad told foreign journalists and diplomats at a briefing at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, an Israeli think-tank. “The leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood keep declaring, ‘We are committed to this peace.’ I am not so sure.”

He said the Islamists regard Israel as “Waqf, holy land,” or property bequeathed by Muslims for religious purposes. He noted that it was the Egypt’s Brotherhood-dominated parliament that called for expelling Israel’s ambassador and reviewing bilateral ties after Israel launched a military strike on Gaza last month [March].

Israel regards the 33-year-old peace treaty with Egypt as a pillar of its national security. Egypt was the first Arab nation to make peace with the Jewish state and Gilad said he couldn’t imagine peace deals with other Arab countries in the future without Egyptian support.

Lawlessness is growing in the Sinai Peninsula, which abuts Israel. Al-Qaeda and Palestinian terrorists are using it as a launch pad for strikes against Israel and disgruntled Bedouin routinely attack the pipeline that delivers natural gas to Israel and Jordan. Egyptian forces have failed to keep order since Husni Mubarak was toppled over a year ago. Israeli security sources have labeled Sinai a “terror incubator,” a transit point for huge quantities of arms, rockets and contraband originating in Iran and Libya headed for Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. (By Arieh O’Sullivan, The Media Line, April 10, 2012)

26. MB STRATEGIST SET TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF EGYPT

COULD EMERGE AS AN ENEMY OF ISRAEL

If he wins the June election, the Brotherhood, a previously outlawed Islamist group, would control the presidency, the Parliament and the committee writing the new constitution, moving toward a confrontation with Egypt’s military rulers over the country’s future. His candidacy is likely to unnerve the West and has already outraged Egyptian liberals, who wonder what other pledges of moderation the Brotherhood may abandon.

Mr. Shater faces Islamist rivals to his left and right – one a more liberal former Brotherhood leader, the other an ultraconservative Salafi. Indeed, the Brotherhood may have entered the race in part because a win or near win by either rival Islamist would badly damage its authority as the primary voice of the Islamist movement in Egypt . . .

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to comment specifically on Mr. Shater but called the nomination a worrisome turn. ‘Obviously this is not good news,’ the official said. ‘The Muslim Brotherhood is no friend of Israel’s. They do not wish us well. The big question will be how pragmatic they will be once in power. It could go in either direction.’” Note: Egypt’s process of electing a president will begin May 23, and the winner will be announced June 21st. (JOEL ROSENBERG)

27. NEW VERSIONS OF ‘FOUR QUESTIONS’ CELEBRATE OBAMA

This year the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) has published a new version of the “Four Questions” traditionally recited at the Passover Seder. Instead of commemorating the liberation of the Jews from Egypt, the NJDC has chosen to take this opportunity to hail, what they see as, the achievements of President Barack Obama. As Commentary Magazine’s Jonathan Tobin poignantly notes, “One of the most disturbing aspects of modern American Jewish life is the almost obsessive desire of many Jews to universalize every aspect of Jewish belief while downplaying the original meanings of customs and ritual.”

Following a video of President Obama’s Passover greetings, the NJDC states, “As Jews in the United States and around the world gather together to celebrate Passover, it is important that we reflect on the blessings and freedoms that we have as Jews living in a free society. One of those blessings is that we have a President deeply committed to the safety and security of Israel, and the welfare of all Americans-including the needy among us.”

They then go on to list their new version of the ‘Four Questions,’ which include: “Why has President Obama provided record amounts of military aid to Israel?”; “Why has President Obama worked so hard and succeeded at uniting the world against Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons program?” ”Why has President Obama achieved the historic passage of ‘Obamacare’”?; and, “Why has President Obama fought to strengthen Medicare and Medicaid?” They claim that the “answers to all of these questions are: President Obama cares deeply about the safety and security of the Jewish state. He has been Israel’s leading advocate from day one and has done more than any other President to meaningfully bolster its defenses and provide for its future. He also cares deeply about the welfare of all Americans, including our seniors and the needy – and our commitment to them.”

However, if one examines President Obama’s record on Israel, he or she is likely to recognize that, as Charles Krauthammer explains, “This president [Obama] has done more to delegitimize and undermine Israel’s position in the world than any other president and he did it by arriving on the scene and imposing and demanding of Israel a freeze on settlements including the building of the Jewish homes in the Jewish quarter of Jerusalem, of all places, something that had never been precondition in 17 years of negotiations.”

Yet, despite one’s political inclinations and alliances, and regardless of a president’s administrative record, the Passover seder is not a forum for furthering political objectives or creating new versions of the ‘Four Questions.’

Tobin notes, “Passover is the occasion for Jews to remember their liberation from Egypt and to embrace not only the gift of freedom but also the ability to worship God and His laws as a people. While seders are appropriate moments to remember those in need as well as other Jewish communities – such as that in Israel – which are assailed by foes, it is not the time to be delivering obsequious paeans to American politicians, no matter which party they belong to. That sort of absurd distortion of the festival of freedom bears a closer resemblance to idol worship than it does to Judaism.” (Arutz7 News)

28. URGENT TERROR ALERT – SYRIA’S WMD PROGRAMS

LIGNET has uncovered information suggesting Syria could provide Iran with sensitive nuclear technology and a secret stockpile of uranium to assist in the building of weapons of mass destruction. This is an urgent concern as the United States watches the situation in Syria deteriorate and terrorist groups like al Qaeda get a foothold.

The United States must start thinking about how to secure Syria’s nuclear program and to locate the missing uranium and nuclear weapons-related technology before they can find their way into the hands of the Iranians or terrorist groups, LIGNET Managing Editor Fred Fleitz said in an interview this week.

“If Assad thinks he’s in danger, he just may decide to transfer some technology, or maybe some uranium, to Iran,” Fleitz said of the Syrian president, who has earned international opprobrium for his brutal crackdown on the opposition.

“Now in terms of falling into the hands of terrorist groups, that is a real worry. The worry that militia groups could seize these weapons, such as militias in Libya did after that conflict, is a real concern.” (Excerpted from www.lignet.com)

29. TURKEY SYRIA TENSIONS RISE AHEAD OF DEADLINE

With just one day to go until a brokered ceasefire in the internal Syrian conflict was supposed to take effect, gunfire from Syria resulted in casualties across the border in Turkey. The incident occurred even as a Turkish newspaper cited experts saying Turkey could consider stronger steps against the Syrian regime if the United Nations-endorsed ceasefire is not upheld on Tuesday [April 10].

Monday’s cross-border violence occurred in a Turkish town where Syrians have fled the bloodshed in their own country. According to a press release from the Turkish Foreign Ministry sent to The Mideast Update, two Syrian nationals and two Turks were injured as a result of the gunfire from Syria.

The Bashar al-Assad regime has viciously cracked down on a 13-month-old uprising against its rule, killing thousands of civilians in the process. The once peaceful-protest opposition has itself grown more militant, leading to international concern that a civil war could break out in the country.

Turkey was incensed by Monday’s incident, according to the Foreign Ministry’s press release. “Syrian citizens who took refuge in our country from the brutality of the current regime in Syria are under Turkey’s full protection. We will certainly take necessary measures if such incidents reoccur.”

The release said that sentiment was “communicated through definitive and strong expressions” to the Syrian Chargé d’Affaires in Ankara, who was summoned on Monday to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

“It is being observed that the regime forces have recently shifted their attacks on people to areas close to our common border,” the Turkish statement further said of the Assad-led crackdown. The Turks noted that 21 wounded Syrians fleeing the assaults had recently entered Turkey, two of whom died shortly thereafter, presumably from their wounds.

The spike in violence near Turkey comes as a self-declared ceasefire date draws near for the Syrian government. The deal, brokered by UN envoy Kofi Annan, was accepted by the Assad regime, who gave themselves until April 10 to comply according to Annan.

In the Annan plan, within 48 hours of the regime pulling back its troops from population centers the opposition was also to respect the ceasefire. However, the Syrian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman said in a statement on Sunday that the April 10 deadline announced by Annan was an incorrect interpretation of the government’s commitment.. . It remains to be seen how the world can force the Syrian regime to back down. The English-language Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman reported that as a result of the Syrian regime revisiting the ceasefire deal, one option for Turkey could be to seek international support in imposing a “humanitarian aid corridor” or “buffer zone” inside its conflict-ridden neighbor.

Today’s Zaman cited multiple experts who acknowledged Turkey could potentially push for a force to enter Syrian territory to create such a safe zone. The newspaper further reported that the Turkish Red Crescent had said it was preparing to bring aid into Syria if an aid corridor is announced.

(By Joshua Spurlock, www.themideastupdate.com, April 9, 2012)

30. CHANGE OF HEART IN MOSCOW AND BEIJING WILL UNLOCK SYRIAN CRISIS

With the death toll in the 13-month-old Syrian uprising having exceeded the 10,000 mark last week, Russia and China have signaled that they may change their position with respect to embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, unlocking the key to secure a strong resolution against the brutal regime in the Arab country.

If UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s six-point truce plan, backed by the Security Council, does not hold, Russia and China will find it very difficult to resist a third resolution condemning Assad into total isolation, experts have said.

Syria has promised to observe a UN-backed cease-fire starting on Thursday, but its forces kept up fierce attacks on opposition neighborhoods in the hours before the deadline. The shootings were still reported on Thursday after the 6 a.m. deadline passed. Bassma Kodmani, spokeswoman of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), said the truce was largely observed on Thursday, but that a heavy security presence, including checkpoints and snipers, remain.

In the meanwhile, Turkey is considering setting up a “security” or “buffer” zone along its border with Syria, Prime Minister Erdoğan said on March 16. Touching on the possibility of the buffer zone, Orhan said the buffer zone is necessary in order to maintain the security of the opposition groups, which are targeted by the Assad regime. The number of refugees who have fled to Turkey from the violence in Syria has exceeded 25,000.

Regarding these refugees, Erdoğan stated that Turkey will never close its doors to the Syrian people even if this number reaches 100,000, in accordance with Turkey’s “open door” policy on Syrian refugees. (Zaman)

31. BRUTALITY IN SYRIA CREATES HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

The crisis in Syria has created a flood of refugees. According to the United Nations, the number fleeing the regime’s wrath has risen by several thousand in the past few days and now tops 34,000. Their most recent numbers show that hundreds of thousands are thought to be displaced within Syria. Bill Bray with Christian Aid Mission (http://www.mnnonline.org/groups/CAM) says, “Almost every day, we’re getting new reports of increasing numbers of refugees and increasing sacrifice being made by the Christian community in the surrounding countries to reach out.”

Most of the poor refugees, made up of nominal Christian and other minorities, are fleeing to neighboring countries where the reception has been chilly. “They are trying to contain the refugee crisis, and displaced persons within Syria and not welcoming them across their borders. All the borders are mined and armed–protected. They don’t want a huge rush of refugees from Syria coming into their countries.

“God uses times of crisis to soften hearts to the gospel,” added the Christian Aid staff spokesman. “This may be a time of harvest among Muslim and Christian refugees. God is sovereign. He cares for Muslims. Countries in the Middle East are going through great upheaval. Now many Muslims are turning to Christ. Maybe the long turmoil in Syria is God’s way of bringing this about.”

32. PAKISTAN OFFERS PLAN TO REOPEN SUPPLY LINES TO AMERICAN FORCES

U.S.-Pakistan relations took a leap forward on Friday, when Islamabad agreed to a plan to reopen vital supply routes to American and coalition forces in Afghanistan. The plan bars any private security contractors from working inside Pakistan and bans the United States from carrying out “overt or covert operations” within the country’s borders, according to news reports. That ban on U.S. operations in Pakistan will likely include airstrikes by CIA-operated unmanned aircraft.

If the Obama administration agrees to meet those demands, the United States will be allowed to ship non-lethal equipment and supplies to American and NATO troops in Afghanistan through Pakistan. The agreement comes after nearly a month of negotiations within Pakistani parliament over the terms of the deal. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani assured lawmakers on Friday that Islamabad would enforce the terms of the deal “in letter and spirit.”

The supply routes have been closed to American forces since last November, when U.S. warplanes accidentally attacked a Pakistani border outpost, killing 24 soldiers. As a result, Pakistan also cut off all military and intelligence ties with the United States. . . The number of clandestine airstrikes has surged under the Obama administration, taking out suspected terror targets in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan. Politically, congressional lawmakers also have praised the use of unmanned drones by the military and the intelligence community. Defense spending on autonomous aircraft has surged on Capitol Hill, making the aircraft one of the few bright spots in an increasingly dismal defense budget forecast. (The Hill)

33. MOSLEM BROTHERHOOD VISITS THE WHITE HOUSE

Two weeks ago, officials from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood conferred with members of the National Security Council at the White House. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that this was the new reality, with the Islamist group having become prominent in post-Mubarak Egypt. There is really no big news in this story, as the Obama Administration has actively worked to overthrow secular governments in the Middle East and to install Islamist regimes. (Religious Freedom Coaltion; AFP)

Panetta, what’s the real deal with Iran?

Tom Chapman — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 19:19:51 +0000

Ehud Barak meets Leon Panetta in Washington

Barak to Panetta: What is your bottom line for Iran?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 20, 2012

Notwithstanding the hugs and personal friendship, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak arrived in Washington Thursday April 19 to tax his host, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, with tough questions about the administration’s dialogue with Iran. They followed the lines of, “What’s going on? Is there a deal? Don’t tell me what you have settled with the Iranians, just your minimal demands, your bottom line.”

The questions reflected Israel’s concern at being kept in the dark about US-Iranian back-track negotiations and American concessions, including President Barak Obama’s willingness to yield on full transparency and international nuclear watchdog inspections at Iran’s nuclear sites.

Debkafile reports: The Israeli minister had come to ask for the truth from Panetta’s own lips on the urgent instructions of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who himself had just received worried phone calls from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron. They wanted to find out how far Washington had gone in concessions to Iran. You Israelis have more clout in Washington than us, they said. You have to try and stop the downhill decline. Concern was also registered from Berlin.

The two defense chiefs talked for more than an hour, joined for some of their conversation by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey.

According to our sources, they focused on the fresh intelligence reaching the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran had begun moving military nuclear facilities to secret locations not covered in the confidential deal evolving between the Obama administration and Tehran. Our military sources say that this Iranian action indicates on the one hand that a deal wit the US is within sight but, on the other, that Tehran is already taking advantage of the US concession on oversight and transparency – for concealment.

Shortly after their conversation, Panetta and Barak spoke in separate media interviews. The US Secretary said that plans for a military operation against Iran were in place and he is sure that in the event of a clash, the American military would prevail.

Barak stated that the Israeli and U.S. intelligence findings regarding the objectives of the Iranian nuclear program are aligned, the comment he makes routinely after talking to American officials. The inference is that the two governments are aligned on intelligence but not on how to translate it into action for Iran.

He added that Iran was “clearly heading towards the objective” of building a nuclear weapon.

The Pentagon bulletin reported the Panetta-Barak meeting “to discuss the close US-Israel defense relationship including Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, Iran, Syria and the Arab Awakening’s effect on the region. Secretary Panetta was honored to be joined by Minister Barak at the Department of Defense’s Commemoration of Holocaust Remembrance Day where they each lit a candle to commemorate the memories of the victims of the Holocaust.”

The meeting took place in the middle of a crisis hitting the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department over the president’s far-reaching concessions to Iran in another dispute, the one over three Persian Gulf islands close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz which the UAE accuses Iran of grabbing.

The UAE backed by the GCC is up in arms over the visit Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad paid to Revolutionary Guards bases on Abu Musa island on April 11 at the same time as Saudi Defense Minister Prince Salman was talking to the US president at the White House.

The UAE called the Ahmadinejad’s visit a violation of its sovereignty, while the Gulf bloc saw it as a cocky signal to the region that Tehran calls the shots these days – not America.

Yet, instead of backing its Gulf allies, the State Department on April 19, issued a mild statement urging Iran “to respond positively to the UAE’s initiative to resolve the issue through direct negotiations, the International Court of Justice or another appropriate international forum.”

The Gulf governments had expected Washington to respond to Iranian threats to use Abu Musa for attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and their oil terminals. They are deeply concerned by what they regard as the extreme lengths to which the Obama administration is willing to go to appease Iran, even to the point of giving ground on America’s own standing in the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Obama

Israeli PM criticizes Obama for diplomacy with Iran PATRICK MARTIN - JERUSALEM— From Friday’s Globe and Mail - Published Thursday, Apr. 19, 2012 9:34PM EDT - Last updated Friday, Apr. 20, 2012 6:16AM EDT

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched an unexpected attack this week on the world’s six major powers led by President Barack Obama over how they were conducting nuclear talks with Iran. The attack underscored the fact that relations between the Israeli and U.S. leaders are as bad as they ever were, just as the presidential election in the United States gets into full swing.

Indeed, indications are that not only is Mr. Netanyahu more comfortable with the views on Iran held by Mitt Romney, the leading Republican candidate who is sure to be Mr. Obama’s opponent in this year’s election, but also with Mr. Romney as a person.

Mr. Netanyahu accuses the world powers of stringing out their talks with Iran over its nuclear program. His criticism came one day after the first meeting between Iran and representatives from the so-called five-plus-one countries: the five members of the United Nations Security Council – Russia, China, France, Great Britain and the United States – plus Germany.

“My initial impression is that Iran has been given a ‘freebie,’” Mr. Netanyahu said, referring to the five-week hiatus before the second round of the talks and complained that the gap will allow Iran “to continue enrichment [of uranium] without any limitation, any inhibition.”

Mr. Netanyahu is among Iran’s harshest critics, arguing unceasingly that the Islamic Republic not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, and threatening that if the international community did not prevent this from happening, Israel would.

Few people, however, expected him to launch such an undiplomatic broadside, and so quickly, especially after a recent visit to Washington during which the Israeli and U.S. leaders appeared, finally, to be singing from the same song sheet.

So strident was the Netanyahu attack that Mr. Obama felt compelled to reply while on a visit to Colombia. Iran had gained nothing from the opening round of talks, insisted Mr. Obama, and certainly not a “freebie.”

The Netanyahu government, however, was not appeased. One senior Israeli minister was quoted Wednesday saying that the Obama administration has an interest in dragging the talks out until after November’s election.

There is no doubt that, when it comes to the all-important issue of Iran, the Israeli leader prefers the position held by Mr. Romney. Indeed, it was the former Massachusetts governor who last year uttered the line that in his Mideast policies, Mr. Obama had “thrown Israel under the bus.”

The two conservative politicians first got to know each other more than 35 years ago when their early careers overlapped at the Boston Consulting Group. Mr. Netanyahu, then 26, had been at MIT studying management; Mr. Romney, then 29, had just graduated from Harvard. Both had elected to accept offers from the up-and-coming BCG.

They participated in the firm’s famous weekly discussion groups that showed off both men’s verbal skills and analytical acumen.

“He [Mr. Netanyahu] was a strong personality with a distinct point of view,” Mr. Romney told the New York Times, the publication that first reported on this interesting intersection in the two men’s careers. He added: “I aspired to the same kind of perspective.”

Mr. Netanyahu recalls Mr. Romney, three years older and son of a former Michigan governor, as having the much higher profile. He was the one “seen as a winner,” Mr. Netanyahu said, speaking through a senior aide.

To be sure, the period of overlap between the two men was just over a year and was often interrupted by Mr. Netanyahu’s frequent trips to Israel where he established a foundation against terrorism in honour of his late brother, Jonathan, a commando killed during the famous hostage rescue operation at Entebbe, Uganda.

Despite the brevity, both politicians were said to have adopted the BCG style of analysis, giving them a certain comfort zone when dealing with each other.

“We can almost speak in shorthand,” Mr. Romney said. “We share common experiences and have a perspective and underpinning which is similar.”

Mr. Netanyahu’s aide was at pains to emphasize that the newspaper article “overstated” the closeness of the relationship – “they weren’t soul mates or anything,” he said. But it is clear the two men feel comfortable with one another.

Mr. Netanyahu acknowledges that he offered advice to Mr. Romney when the Republican was the governor of Massachusetts on how best to shrink the size of government, and that Mr. Romney advised him to whom he should speak on the subject of corporate divestment from Iran.

The two men had breakfast together in Israel last year, and Mr. Netanyahu called Mr. Romney last month when the Israeli was in Washington.

“There was no formal meeting with Romney,” Mr. Netanyahu’s aide explained, “because, at that point, we’d have had to meet with all the Republican candidates.”

Now the two old colleagues are in a position to help each other.

Mr. Netanyahu can use Mr. Romney and his position on Iran to keep pressure on Mr. Obama in the nuclear talks, and Mr. Romney can demonstrate his politically desirable closeness to Israel, by his frequent references to “my friend Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Mr. Netanyahu is very careful to remain officially neutral in the presidential race, declining to answer any questions that might indicate a preference for Mr. Romney.

“It would be a fatal mistake to inject ourselves in the U.S. race,” said his aide.

What about where the two men stand on Iran? he is asked.

“I would say this,” the aide carefully replied : “The Prime Minister is very concerned with Iran, as you can see by his comments this week.”

THE IRAN WAR CLOCK

10 Minutes to Midnight: Gauging the Likelihood of War With Iran

By Addison Wiggin

03/12/12 Baltimore, Maryland – According to the people who pay attention to such things, there’s less than a 50/50 chance of a war with Iran in the next 12 months.

Barely less.

There’s a 48% chance, if you want to be precise. We’re at 10 minutes to midnight, figuratively speaking.

The Atlantic has introduced an Iran War Clock… not unlike the “doomsday clock” maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists gauging the likelihood of nuclear war.

“The Iran War Clock is not designed to be pro-war or anti-war,” cautions writer Dominic Tierney. “Instead, the purpose is to estimate the chances of conflict in the hope of producing a more informed debate. If people hold a very inaccurate view of the odds of war, it could be dangerous.”

With that in mind, the magazine has chosen 22 panelists across the ideological spectrum — from the hawkish Atlantic reporter and ex-Israeli soldier Jeffrey Goldberg to the dovish former CIA analyst Paul Pillar.

“If there is a 0% chance of war,” Tierney writes, “the clock hand is at 20 minutes to midnight. Each extra 5% chance of war moves the hand one minute closer to midnight.

“So for instance, a 10% chance of war would set the clock at 18 minutes to midnight, and a 75% chance of war would set the clock at minutes to midnight.”

Right now, it’s 48%. Rounding off, that’s 10 minutes to midnight. The magazine plans to give us an update every month or so.

Meanwhile in the betting market at Intrade.com, the likelihood of war is pegged somewhat lower — 37% by the end of the year.

Depending on whom you want to believe, Intrade might be a more accurate predictor — for Intrade is an intriguing experiment in what’s come to be known as “crowdsourced prediction.”

“Crowdsourced prediction,” according to IT consultant Bob Lewis, “is based on a simple premise — that crowds are wiser than experts. Those who place their faith in markets insist that online betting on these outcomes delivers more accurate results than the experts.”

This is a bigger business than you might think. General Electric uses prediction market software from an outfit called Consensus Point to generate new business ideas. Other Consensus Point clients include Best Buy, Motorola and Qualcomm. A competing firm, NewsFutures, counts Pfizer, Siemens and Renault among its customers.

So what’s this to you? The crowd’s mood can shift from week to week, even day to day. It can be as fickle as a debutante deciding out who gets to dance with her first at the big ball.

And therein lies a moneymaking opportunity, something a lot more fun and potentially much more lucrative than fooling around at Intrade or similar places.

Let’s get back to the prospect of war with Iran: It’s been hanging over the oil market for weeks. But as our market-sentiment maven Abe Cofnas said on Monday: “No one expects an attack on Iran this week while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the U.S. On the bearish side, slowdown in China puts a damper on expected demand for oil. So there is a balance of fears going on.”

That balance led to last week’s “mock trade” in the binary options market. Abe figured by Friday, oil would still be trading in a range between $103.75-108.75. And he was right. It was good for a 19% gain in four days.

Abe’s two for two on these mock trades. The previous week, a play on the movement of the Dow delivered a 24% gain. And the way all of these trades work, it’s “in on Monday, out by Friday.” You know the outcome in four days or less.

Addison Wiggin for The Daily Reckoning

US-Iranian nuclear deal – wishful thinking!

Tom Chapman — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 18:59:53 +0000

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: A nuclear weapon is a sin…

Israel: Reported US-Iranian nuclear deal – wishful thinking
DEBKAfile Special Report April 18, 2012

Officials in Jerusalem angrily dismissed reports of a breakthrough in last Saturday’s nuclear negotiations in Istanbul between six world powers (P5+1) and Iran and most emphatically the claim that “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played his expected role in this choreography” by criticizing the negotiators for giving Iran a five-week freebie for continuing enrichment without limitation, as cited in a Washington Post article on Wednesday, April 18, by the columnist David Ignatius.

Iran is presented as ready to agree to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent and halt work at its underground facility for higher enrichment near Qom, and export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium for final processing to 20 percent for use in medical isotopes. Israeli sources say this report is false: Far from this being the shape of an eventual settlement, it was the shape of American demands relayed to Tehran in side-channels going via Paris and Vienna. Israel was never informed of Iran accepting this formula or its presentation to the Istanbul meeting.

Above all, they stressed, Netanyahu has not and will not play a role in any choreography of this kind staged by the Obama administration.

The Americans appear to have been taken in by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s public pledge in February not to commit the “grave sin” of building a nuclear weapon as representing the Islamic regime’s face-saver for caving in to US pressure. The WP article is indeed captioned” “The stage is set for a deal with Iran.” Nothing, say debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources, is farther from the truth. According to our Iranian sources, there is no sign of the Iranians caving in.

The article itself appears to represent Washington’s comeback for a radio interview aired a few hours earlier, Tuesday, April 17, by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya’alon, in which he sharply criticized the Obama administration for its handling of the nuclear dispute with Iran: “We (Israel) no longer believe in the Americans, and on the Iran issue, we are not in the same boat.”

“Three years ago, Iran had 1,200 kilos of low enriched uranium; today it has five and a half tons,” he pointed out.

Ya’alon also warned that after the way the proceedings went in Istanbul, right after the second round of talks on May 23 in Baghdad, “Israel will review its steps,”

Citing the classical Hebrew adage: If I do not watch out for myself, who will? (אם אין אני לי מי לי?) , he noted: “Obama too has said Israel has the right to self-defense.”

The deputy prime minister was the first Israeli national figure to suggest that, after May 23, the Netanyahu government would approach a decision on the date for a countdown to an attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

Yaalon certainly said enough to cause some agitation in Washington, judging by the flood of phone calls debkafile’s sources report coming in from Washington with requests for clarifications.

Earlier that Tuesday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in another radio interview that the“P5+1” group’s talks with Iran must result in a clear-cut resolution, the end of Iran’s nuclear program. He did not believe they would, although he hoped to be proved wrong.
The two Israeli ministers would not have delivered their downbeat comments if indeed US talks with Iran over and under the negotiating table had achieved, or even approached, the breakthrough depicted in Washington.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Iran’s president says country’s army will make the enemy regret any aggression against Tehran By Associated Press, Published: April 16, 2012

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s armed forces will make its enemies regret any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned on Tuesday as Iranians marked National Army Day with a military parade near the capital Tehran.

Although Ahmadinejad did not specify any countries, such language used by Iranian officials is a common reference to the West, especially the United States and Israel.

The harsh tone was typical of speeches for military events but it contrasted sharply with a sense of cautious progress after the direct talks with world powers last week on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The remarks could leave Western officials confused by the mixed signals.

“Our armed forces will make the enemy face a heavy and shameful regret if they commit any aggression and violate Iran’s interests,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech broadcast live on state TV.

Both the U.S. and Israel have not ruled out a military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the West suspects are geared toward making nuclear arms — a charge Tehran denies, insisting its program is for peaceful purposes only. Iran’s refusal to halt the uranium enrichment program has been its main point of contention with the West.

“The foreign interference will bear nothing but destruction, rifts and insecurity” in the region, Ahmadinejad said.

The comments are typical of rhetoric that has been coming out of Tehran, belligerent one day, conciliatory the next.

Iran has hinted at more flexibility after Tehran and the world powers agreed to hold more talks on its controversial nuclear program following their Saturday discussions in Istanbul, which both sides praised as positive. A second round is planned for next month in Baghdad.

Prior to the talks in Istanbul with the five permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany, Tehran offered to scale back uranium enrichment but not abandon the ability to make nuclear fuel. At the same time, however, it ignored another Western concern — Iran’s existing stockpile. The West wants Iran’s current reserves of 20 percent-enriched uranium to be transferred out of the country.

After Istanbul, Iranian officials urged the West to start taking steps to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU over Iran’s nuclear activities.

During the parade on Tuesday, Iran displayed an array of its homemade short-range missiles, tanks, drones and air defense system as well as some of its jet fighters, warplanes and military helicopters. Iran has tried to build a self-sufficient military program since 1992.

On the sidelines of the parade, Iran’s army chief Gen. Ataollah Salehi told the state IRNA news agency that U.S. warships in the Gulf are “sweet targets” for Iranian armed forces.

Salehi, who is known for anti-U.S. rhetoric and had threatened U.S. ships in the Gulf before, did not elaborate.

In January, he warned an American warship not to return to the Gulf shortly after the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and another vessel left the region. Another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, entered the Gulf without incident later in January.

Iran has also in the past threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway in the Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, a move that could send oil prices soaring.

Among the weaponry on display Tuesday was “Qadr,” or a Sacred Night mentioned in the Quran, a 2,000 pound guided bomb. Iran has earlier suggested it could counter the U.S. naval presence in the Gulf.

Fereidoun Abbasi, Iran’s nuclear chief

Iran establishes nuclear crisis headquarters

By Ronald Zak, AP

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran’s official news agency is reporting the country has established headquarters for managing nuclear crises.

The report by IRNA says the headquarters will be in charge of monitoring and confronting nuclear threats and pollution as well as improving public awareness.

The move is seen a part of preparations for increasing use of nuclear energy.

Iran enriches uranium at 3.5 and 20%. The West suspects Iran is preparing to make nuclear weapons, but Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes, like generating electricity.

Iran has several nuclear sites, including a nuclear power plant under power generation tests. It is working on enrichment facilities and is building a heavy water reactor.

The report says Fereidoun Abbasi, Iran’s nuclear chief, will run the headquarters operation under the civil defense agency.

Is Obama Doublecrossing Netanyahu?

Tom Chapman — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:15:22 +0000

Israel: Obama’s secret dealings with Iran conflict with US-Israeli understandings
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 16, 2012

The fundamental rift on Iran between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu burst into the open Monday, April 16 when high-ranking Israeli officials close to Netanyahu directly accused the president of reneging on the US-Israeli understandings reached ahead of the Istanbul talks between the six powers and Iran on April 14.

Behind the show biz of Istanbul, they charged, the US and Iran had reached secret agreements in clandestine bilateral contacts channeled through Paris and Vienna.

The row surfaced Sunday when Netanyahu said the US and world powers by agreeing to hold more talks in Baghdad next month had given Tehran a “freebie” of five more weeks to continue enriching uranium without restrictions. By singling out the US, the prime minister aimed his comment directly at the president.

Obama’s response was fast. At a news conference ending the Western Hemisphere summit in Cartagenia, Colombia, he commented sharply: “The notion that somehow we’ve given something away or a `freebie’ would indicate Iran has gotten something. In fact, they’ve got some of the toughest sanctions that they’re going to be facing coming up in just a few months if they don’t take advantage of these talks.”

That is the very point on which Israel accuses the US president of playing false: time. As disclosed by debkafile on April 9, American and Israeli officials preceded the Istanbul talks with an understanding for the US to put before Iran agreed demands/concessions: Iran would be allowed to keep 1,000 centrifuges for the low-level enrichment of uranium up to 3.5 percent purity, the first time Israel had accepted the principle of Iran enriching uranium at any grade at all.

It was also agreed between Washington and Jerusalem that Iran would not be permitted to keep 20 percent enriched uranium, which is a short step before weapons-grade, in any quantity.

These understandings, known as the “1,000 principle,” were meant to represent the final upshot of the formal negotiations with Iran, a consensus to which US diplomats would aspire in as short a time possible.

In the event, the US delegation did not present any of the agreed demands – or any other – to the Iranians attending the first round of talks in Turkey.

The belated sense of being misled prompted the prime minister’s exceptionally sharp reaction.
Israeli official sources now suspect that in their secret contacts, the US has granted Iran far-reaching concessions on its nuclear program – more than Israel would find unacceptable. The formal talks in Istanbul and in Baghdad on May 23 are seen as nothing but a device to screen the real business the US and Iran have already contracted on the quiet.

Is Barak Obama a Saudi Muslim Plant in the White House?

Saudi King Abdullah and his subject

To view the embedded video click on the URL below:

http://youtu.be/0Jhx_2TqffE

Focus On the Middle East

Tom Chapman — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 17:22:39 +0000

Focus On the Middle East

For the week beginning April 9, 2012

This week, for all the headlines cited below, please join us in proclaiming THIS DECREE:

“Praise the LORD. Praise the LORD from the heavens; praise him in the heights above. Praise him, all his angels; praise him, all his heavenly hosts. Let them praise the name of the LORD, for at his command they were created, and he established them for ever and ever- he issued a decree that will never pass away.” (Psalm 148:1,2,5,6)

1. US Says Israel Likely To Target Iran’s Nuclear Program Before June – VOA News

The outcome of talks set to begin Saturday between world powers and Iran over its disputed nuclear program could be a determining factor in whether Israel carries out threatened airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

2. Abdullah seeking divorce from Palestinians – Jerusalem Post

King Abdullah is seeking to complete the divorce proceedings between Jordan and the Palestinians which his late father, King Hussein, began in 1988.

3. Israel holds secret talks on involvement in Mideast nuclear disarmament conference – Ha’aretz

4. Iran to offer new proposals at nuclear talks – Jerusalem Post

Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said Wednesday that the country would put forward “new initiatives” in upcoming negotiations over its nuclear program.

5. PM to Abbas: Talks without recognition of Israel as Jewish state – Ynet News

A few weeks after the Palestinians are expected to present Benjamin Netanyahu with a missive detailing their conditions for the renewal of peace negotiations, the Israeli prime minister will respond with a letter of his own. Government officials familiar with the document told Ynet Wednesday night it would not include a demand for Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.

6. Netanyahu to offer Abbas return to direct Mideast peace talks, sources say - Ha’aretz

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will offer a Palestinian delegation to upgrade Mideast peace negotiations to direct talks, to be led by Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, a source in the Prime Minister’s Office said on Wednesday.

7. Israel, Lebanon navy increase cooperation in Mediterranean – Ha’aretz

The Israel Navy has recently strengthened its cooperation with the Lebanese Navy in the Mediterranean, as it prepares for possible pro-Palestinian flotillas to Gaza on Nakba Day this month.

8. Quartet concerned over ‘ongoing settler violence’ – Ynet News

The Middle East Quartet expressed concern on Monday over “ongoing settler violence and incitement in the West Bank” and called on Israel to take “effective measures, including bringing the perpetrators of such acts to justice.

9. Obama raised money for Islamic causes

Back in the 1990s, Barack Obama spoke at fundraisers for Palestinians living in what the United Nations terms refugee camps, as WND was first to report.

Palestinians have long demanded the “right of return” for millions of “refugees,” a formula Israeli officials across the political spectrum warn is code for Israel’s destruction by flooding the Jewish state with millions of Muslim Arabs, thereby changing its demographics.

As president, Obama has faced criticism of his stance on Israel, including his unprecedented call for a complete halt to Jewish construction in the eastern sections of Jerusalem and in Judea and Samaria as a precondition for talks with the Palestinians.

Obama has hailed his presidential track record on the Jewish state, touting continued financial aid and loan guarantees to Israel. Such standard funding falls mostly within the purview of Congress, however.

On the specific issue of Palestinian “refugees,” Obama has never indicated he will push for the so-called right of return. (WorldNetDaily)

10. Palestinian Protestors to Retry Mass Fly-in

Pro-Palestinian protestors are planning to launch a second attempt at staging a mass fly-in of more than 1,000 sympathizers to clog the works at Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport as an attention-grabber. The event is set for April15.

As they did the last time the tactic was tried, Israeli security and intelligence will work with airlines’ security and governments of the countries of embarkation to prevent protest participants from boarding their Israel-bound flights, minimizing the demonstration’s effectiveness in Israel.

Upon arrival, those who were able to successfully board their flights will say they are traveling to the West Bank [Judea and Samaria], triggering security procedures organizers believe will tie-up operations at the airport. For those who succeed in entering Israel and finding their way to Bethlehem, a cornerstone-laying ceremony will be the gathering point. (By The Media Line, April 5, 2012)

[Reported by: Bridges for Peace]

11. Iran uncovers Israel-linked ‘major terrorist group’ – BBC

The Iranian intelligence ministry has identified a “major terrorist group” linked to Israel and arrested some of its members, state media report. Bombs, machine-guns and military communications equipment were reportedly seized in operations in Iran’s “border and central provinces”. In March, NBC News quoted two senior US officials as confirming that the assassinations of Iranian scientists had been carried out by members of a dissident group, People’s Mujahideen of Iran (PMOI) or Mojahedin-e Khalq, who were financed and trained by Israel’s secret service, Mossad.

12. Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran’s Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack - Business Insider

The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.”Iran is our neighbor. If Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.” said Rogozin, deputy Russian prime minister and regarded as anti-Western. Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn’t believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary. This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

13. Israel holds secret talks on involvement in Mideast nuclear disarmament conference – Haaretz

Finland’s Undersecretary of State for Foreign Affairs visited Jerusalem secretly last week for talks with Israeli counterparts about Israel’s involvement in a conference to ban nuclear arms from the Middle East. Two years ago Israel voiced opposition to such a conference. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty conference is scheduled to be held in Helsinki in December but could be deferred until 2013.

14. Lebanese targets fair game in war with Hezbollah – Jerusalem Post

Israel will attack Lebanese government targets during a future war with Hezbollah, senior defense officials said amid speculation that a war could erupt in the North following a future strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

15. ‘Flytilla’ organizers: Israel won’t determine who enters Palestine – Ynet News

Israel vowed Tuesday to prevent the entry of hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists from Europe and North America expected to arrive in the country this weekend, calling them provocateurs who are intent on disturbing public order.

16. Quartet to meet in DC, but peace process expectations low – Jerusalem Post

Senior Quartet representatives will meet in Washington on Wednesday amid little expectation that they will have more luck this time kick-starting direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

17. Palestinians gather for popular resistance conference – Ynet News

“The non-violent popular resistance is showing results and the whole world supports us on this issue,” declared Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad at the International Conference for Popular Resistance in Bilin. This is the seventh year the conference is being held.

18. Israel signals willingness to accept Western plans for next round of Iran nuclear talks – Ha’aretz

Israel had previously any negotiated resolution should end all uranium enrichment, high and low level, and remove all fuel already stockpiled by Iran, but P5+1 want first to tackle the 20% enrichment.

19. Israel ‘satisfied’ with Iran’s rejection of West’s demands - Ynet News

Senior state officials were satisfied Sunday with Iran’s rejection of Western proposals for the nuclear crisis. “As far as Israel is concerned, the Iranian response is good,” one state official said. It has been estimated that this will force US President Barack Obama to toughen sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

20. Abbas threatens to renew UN statehood bid – Jerusalem Post

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas renewed his threat on Sunday to unilaterally seek UN recognition of a Palestinian state if Israel did not accept his conditions for resuming the peace process.

21. Hamas executes 3 in Gaza, including Israel ‘collaborator’ – Ha’aretz

Islamist group Hamas executed three men on Saturday, hanging two convicted murderers and a Gazan found guilty of collaborating with Israel, the Hamas-run ministry of interior said.

22. New blast hits Egypt gas pipeline serving Jordan, Israel - Reuters

An explosion hit the Egyptian pipeline carrying gas to Israel and Jordan on Monday for 14th time since the uprising against President Hosni Mubarak began last year, security sources said.

23. State Department Barred Inspection of Muslim Brotherhood Delegation

The State Department broke with normal procedures last week when it ordered the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) not to conduct a secondary inspection on members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) on their way to visit government officials and think tanks in the United States.

This happened despite the fact that one member of the delegation had been implicated – though not charged – in a U.S. child pornography investigation, the Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) has learned.

According to senior enforcement sources and documents reviewed by the IPT, investigators had information tying Abdul Mawgoud Dardery to the pornography investigation that was based in Pennsylvania. He was the senior member in the four-person FJP delegation which held court with academic groups and met with senior officials at the White House and State Department last week.

A U.S. official familiar with immigration procedures told the IPT that extra inspection is standard operating procedure when a foreign visitor has been tied to criminal or terrorist activities. “Secondary inspections” involve going through the visitor’s baggage and viewing the contents of computers and other electronic devices to search for evidence of illicit activity. Agents would typically search other members of the party to ensure Dardery did not hand off his computer equipment to an associate to avoid detection.

In addition, the Brotherhood’s relationship with the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas would have triggered extra scrutiny for the incoming delegation. But that “secondary inspection” never happened, a law enforcement source said. The State Department ordered CBP not to do it.

The State Department issued a cable specifically barring Customs officials from carrying out any inspections of Dardery and the other members of the delegation on their arrival at New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport. The immigration official described this action by the State Department as “extraordinary.”

Beyond the State Department’s prohibition on conducting extra scrutiny of Dardery and members of his delegation, the State Department barred US Customs officials from carrying out even the standard inspection mandated for foreigners arriving from Egypt, where an enhanced security program is in place as a result of the 9-11 attacks.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 with the goal of establishing a worldwide Islamic state through jihad and martyrdom. The group is considered the parent of all Sunni terrorist groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

[Source: Investigative Project on Terrorism]

Secret US-Israeli accord with Iran?

Tom Chapman — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 19:45:26 +0000

Ahmadinejad celebrates Nuclear Day

Exclusive: Secret US-Israeli accord to Iran keeping low 3.5 enriched uranium plus 1,000 centrifuges
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 9, 2012

Debkafile’s Washington sources disclose exclusively that the Obama administration and Netanyahu government have secretly agreed on “Formula of 1,000” as their final concession at the end of the forthcoming Six Power nuclear talks with Iran which starts Saturday, April 14. In substance, this formula would let Iran keep 1,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium up to 3.5 percent and stock 1,000 kilograms of the same grade uranium while, aside from a small amount for medical research, giving up its store of 20-percent grade uranium which can be jumped quickly to weapon quality.

US sources told debkafile that Russia and China have accepted the deal.

According to our Iranian sources, Tehran was informed of this formula through its back-channel contacts with Washington (which debkafile has been tracking since mid-February). That is why in Iranian public statements in the last couple of days have harped on the issue of uranium enriched to 20 percent. US-Israeli permission to keep 3.5 percent grade is in the bag before the talks begin, so Iran is treating it as the starting-point for bargaining, not the end result, and concentrating on raising the ante through the negotiating process to come.

The concession Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak made to the Obama administration, to let Iran to continue to enrich uranium, has not been brought before any Israeli government or military forum. Their remarks Sunday, April 8, conveyed the mistaken impression that there were at odds on the nuclear issue in the run-up to international talks.

Netanyahu said Israel would be satisfied with nothing less than the total discontinuance of uranium enrichment and the removal of all quantities out of Iran, while Barak’s words came closer to the secret deal with Washington when he spoke of consenting to Iran continuing to produce low-enriched uranium and holding on to a few hundred kilos.

At his meeting with the new Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, in Jerusalem, Netanyahu repeated that Israel had not changed its position and that the Six Powers must make Iran stop enrichment entirely.

But in fact, as debkafile reveals here, Israel’s position has undergone a dramatic transformation and given in to Iran except for medical research on a major point of principle, i.e. enrichment.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad walked through the door this opened for him Sunday night and slapped down three fresh demands which Tehran would put before the Six Power negotiators in Istanbul Saturday:

1. Clearance for the new system about to be activated for converting 3.5 enriched uranium to nuclear fuel rods in the first stage and nuclear plates in the second.

Producing 20 percent uranium from nuclear plates is relatively fast, efficient and cheap.

2. Permission for homemade production of nuclear fuel rods for the heavy water plant under construction at Arak.
This would provide Tehran with the option of plutonium in addition to enriched uranium for making weapons.

3. Iran’s first nuclear reactor at Bushehr is now operating at 75 percent capacity under the management of the Russian engineers who built it. Tehran wants Iranian engineers to take over the reactor’s management in full in seven months.

Iran is putting those three demands on the table to counter the US-Israeli insistence on shutting down the underground nuclear plant at Fordow, near Qom.

Debkafile’s sources add that the Israeli prime minister, by giving crucial ground on the major sticking point of uranium enrichment, appears to have calculated that after going the extra mile, Obama will not be able to block Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear sites if Tehran continues nonetheless to play games and cheat the International Atomic Energy Agency and its inspectors.

Netanyahu may have miscalculated the odds. His concession gave Obama enough rope to pull the Iranians to the negotiating table through his back channel to Tehran. That channel will remain open and the US is more likely to be induced by Iranian wiles to make more concessions than it is to give Israel the nod for military action.

Iran’s Nuclear Enrichment Facility at Fordow

West to target Iran’s nuclear fuel work Reuters | Apr 9, 2012

JERUSALEM/DUBAI: The United States and its allies are pressing for an end to Iran’s high-level uranium enrichment and the closure of a facility built deep under a mountain as talks on Tehran’s nuclear standoff with the West resume this week.

Iranian media and Western officials said the talks, which collapsed more than a year ago, would begin on Saturday in Istanbul.

A return to the table, as the Western allies tighten sanctions over what they say is Tehran’s program to develop nuclear weapons, had been in doubt after Iran and the P5+1 countries – the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany – released conflicting statements about the venue.

Tehran had earlier voiced concerns about holding talks in Turkey, whose opposition to Iranian ally President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has angered the Islamic Republic.

“After weeks of debates, Iran and the six world powers agreed to attend a first meeting in Istanbul,” the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing unnamed sources. State-run English language Press TV carried the same report.

Fars also said the sides had agreed to a second round of talks in Baghdad if there was progress in Turkey.

A senior US official said that getting Iran to suspend high-level uranium enrichment and close a nuclear facility built deep under a mountain near the holy city of Qom are “near-term priorities” for the United States and its allies.

The New York Times said the United States and other Western nations planned to demand Iran immediately close and ultimately dismantle the Fordow facility and also would call for a halt in the production of 20-percent enriched uranium.

The US official told Reuters “20 percent and closing Fordow are near-term priorities” for the Obama administration and its international partners in dealing with Iran.

An Iranian official rejected any demand that Iran suspend enrichment of uranium to 20 percent and close the Fordow site.

“We see no justification for such a request from the P5+1,” the head of Iran’s atomic energy organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, told the Iranian student news agency.

Iran says its nuclear program is for power generation and producing isotopes for medical purposes, but the U.N. Security Council has demanded a full suspension of enrichment, both to the 20 percent and the 3.5 percent level.

Iran has enough 3.5 and 20 percent-enriched uranium for around four bombs if the material is refined further to about 90-percent purity, Western experts say.

Americans friends

Earlier on Sunday, Israel, which has also demanded an end to all enrichment and has threatened attacks on its arch-foe’s nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails, signalled it would accept, as a first priority, the Western powers focusing on stopping 20-percent enrichment.

“We told our American friends, as well as the Europeans, that we would have expected the threshold for successful negotiations to be clear, namely that the P5+1 will demand clearly that – no more enrichment to 20 per cent,” Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS to be aired on Sunday.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We saw in the past Iran has used the talks to try and delay and mislead the West, so the demands must be clear.

“One, to end all enrichment of uranium, both 20 percent and 3 percent, secondly to take the enriched material out of Iran – it is possible to provide them with alternative material for peaceful purposes – and thirdly the illegal installation in Qom must be dismantled.”

While Iran says it has a right to peaceful nuclear technology, it has at times appeared more flexible regarding 20 percent enrichment, which it began in early 2010, and some experts say that initially getting Iran to stop this higher-grade work could open a way to ease the deadlock.

It is not clear what Iran would expect in return, but an easing of some of the sanctions, which include an oil embargo by
the European Union, might be among them. There was scant encouragement from Iran to signal it was ready for concessions.

In an address on Iran’s annual day to celebrate its nuclear achievements, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Western powers that Iran would continue to pursue its swift scientific progress.

“The nuclear industry is like a locomotive that can carry other industries along with it. It is like the space industry that has raised tens of sub-industries under it and it is clear that we must continue on this path,” the Iranian state news agency quoted him as saying.

“You are blind if you think you can block scientific growth in Iran by martyring Iranian scientists,” he added, referring to the killing of four Iranian scientists since 2010. “Don’t think you can stop this roaring river, and know that if you assassinate one scientist, hundreds and thousands will take his place.”

Focus On the Middle East

Tom Chapman — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 21:25:55 +0000

Focus on the Middle East

Week of March 2, 2012

This week, for all the headlines cited below, please join us in proclaiming THIS DECREE:

“The LORD takes pleasure in them that fear him, in those that hope in his mercy. Praise the LORD, O Jerusalem; praise your God, O Zion. For he has strengthened the bars of your gates; he has blessed your children within you. He makes peace in your borders, and fills you with the finest of the wheat. (Psalm 146:7-14)

1. BOLTON ACCUSES ADMINISTRATION OF LEAKING STORY

Bolton accuses administration of leaking story on Israeli planning along Iran border

Former U.S. diplomat John Bolton alleged Thursday that the Obama administration leaked a story about covert Israeli activity in order to foil potential plans by the country to attack Iran’s nuclear program. Bolton, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the George W. Bush administration, was responding to an article in Foreign Policy magazine that quoted government sources claiming Israel had been granted access to airfields in Azerbaijan — along Iran’s northern border.

The article did not state exactly what the Israelis’ intentions were, but it suggested it could point to a possible strike on Iran. “I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” Bolton claimed on Fox News.

The White House did not respond to Bolton’s claims Thursday.

Bolton, a Fox News contributor, noted that a strike launched from Azerbaijan would be much easier for the Israelis than a strike launched from their own country — jets could stay over their targets longer and worry less about refueling. But he said tipping the Israelis’ hand by revealing “very sensitive, very important information” could frustrate such a plan.

“Clearly, this is an administration-orchestrated leak,” Bolton told FoxNews.com. “This is not a rogue CIA guy saying I think I’ll leak this out. It’s just unprecedented to reveal this kind of information about one of your own allies,” Bolton said. (Fox News)

2. ISRAEL HAS QUIET TIES TO AZERBAIJAN

In a report last week, Foreign Policy cited senior US government leaders who revealed Israel had secured the use of airbases in Azerbaijan, a nation that borders Iran to the north. “The Israelis have bought an airfield, and the airfield is called Azerbaijan,” said one US official. . .

Last month, Azerbaijan quietly signed a deal to buy $1.6 billion worth of Israeli arms largely comprised of anti-aircraft and missile defense systems equipment. The country has allegedly denied reports it provided Israel with an airfield near the border with the Islamic Republic. Azerbaijan could be expected to avoid stirring up a hornet’s nest with Iran and other Islamic regimes by curtailing such disclosures. (Fox News)

- Approximately 99.2% of the population of Azerbaijan is Muslim. The country is known to be among the most progressive Islamic societies. Its support for secularism and tolerance is the highest among Muslim nations. Intercede for Azerbaijan to become Israel’s increasingly staunch ally – and to be protected from fear and bullying tactics from Iran.

3. LAND DAY TURNS VIOLENT

Anti-Israel organizers and leaders of Land Day events and the Global March to Jerusalem promised that March 30 demonstrations would be non-violent. Israel was prepared, however, for the true face of hatred to rear its ugly head as the day progressed.

Land Day turned brutal Friday when Arabs began hurling Molotov cocktails and stones at soldiers near the Kalandia checkpoint north of Jerusalem. The riots began after Friday afternoon Muslim prayers when dozens of masked Arab youths began rioting at the checkpoint. Soldiers responded with tear gas and deployed the “Skunk” – a vehicle loaded with canons spraying a noxious-smelling liquid. Several protesters were slightly injured in the clashes and taken to the hospital.

Hundreds of Arabs also gathered near the Nablus Gate in Jerusalem in an attempt to stage an illegal march, but were stopped by police. Numerous arrests were reported. Meanwhile, Jordanian news sites disclosed some 20,000 people had gathered to take part in the massive march towards the Israeli border. Lebanese newspaper As-Safir reported 120 Hamas-provided buses for transporting protesters to the Israeli border to participate in the “Global March on Jerusalem.” Friday’s violence was widely expected as rallies took place throughout Israel. Security officials, deployed thousands of additional troops and police officers on Thursday in anticipation of trouble. (INN)

ONE PA ARAB DEAD IN LAND DAY RIOTS

In a late Friday press release, Bethlehem-based Ma’an news agency reported that protester, Mahmoud Zaqout, was killed by Israeli fire when he tried to breach the security zone near the Erez Crossing. An Israeli army spokesman said that one PA Arab man approached the Erez crossing before soldiers opened fire. The spokesman added that forces acted within the rules of engagement, firing warning shots and then directly targeting him when he refused to stop. Earlier Friday, Arabs began hurling firebombs and stones at soldiers near the Kalandia checkpoint north of Jerusalem. (Arutz-7)

4. LAND DAY RALLIES IN COUNTRIES BORDERING ISRAEL

In Jordan a large rally took place, Friday, drawing 14,000 people – including protesters who arrived from Asia to take part in the Pro-Palestinian event. Concurrently, an estimated 5,000 people held an anti-Israel rally in southern Lebanon. Some arrived at the demonstration from Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps, while others travelled from as far as India. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Hussein Amir Abed Lahyan, toured southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, and promised the Islamic Republic will continue to support the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance “until the entire land is liberated.”

A Hezbollah delegation attended the reception held for the Iranian official. In Syria, hundreds of protesters rallied in Damascus in show of solidarity for the Palestinians, while the Palestinian community in Egypt staged a protest in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Meanwhile, in a related and shocking development further afield, far-left candidate, George Galloway, won a landslide win in the by-election for the Bradford West parliamentary seat in the UK on Thursday night. He celebrated his victory, tweeting to supporters, “. . . Long live Palestine . . . ” (Ynet/Ha’aretz)

5. FEARING SYRIA WAR, GANTZ HOLDS SURPRISE DRILLS

Fearing a future war with Syria, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.- Gen. Benny Gantz held a surprise drill inspection of two key military bases in the North on Sunday to ensure that they will be able to continue operating in the event of significant missile attacks.

Commanders at the bases – one a critical ammunition depot and the other a key maintenance base for IDF armored vehicles – were surprised when Gantz and other senior officers arrived at the gates of their bases to review operations there.

A senior IDF officer who participated in the inspections said that they were aimed at ensuring the military’s readiness for a wide range of scenarios including possible war with Syria as well as additional border demonstrations like those held over the weekend. “Our assumption is that both of these bases will come under major missile fire in a future war and nevertheless, soldiers there will need to know how to continue to operate,” the officer said.

Gantz has explained that the objective of the drills is to help create a new mindset within the IDF according to which Israel needs to be prepared for the possibility that war could erupt without warning, particularly in light of the ongoing upheaval sweeping the Middle East. (Jerusalem Post)

6. IDF, U.S. AND GREECE HOLD JOINT EXERCISES IN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Meanwhile Sunday, the IDF was holding joint air and navy maneuvers with the United States and Greece in the Mediterranean Sea. According to reports in the Greek press, the drill was focusing on air-to-air combat scenarios as well as anti-submarine warfare. The drill is under the supervision of the US’s Sixth Fleet.

The exercise, called Noble Dina, was first held in 2011 and came to fill a void created after Turkey pulled out of joint maneuvers it had held with Israel since 1998 after Ankara suspended military cooperation with the IDF in 2010. (Jerusalem Post)

7. IT’S RAINING IN ISRAEL!

As we write, it is snowing and raining again in the north, and is forecast to shower in Jerusalem this evening. What a blessing this is! For the first time in seven years the water level in the Sea of Galilee has risen two meters during a single rainy season. This season has also greatly improved the level of water in the large underground mountain aquifer. The other aquifer which runs along the coast is still low, and the Sea of Galilee is still three meters from full-but we are so grateful that things are getting back to normal.

In Israel, the “Former Rains” usually come between October and the middle of March. The so-called “Latter Rains” come from around Passover until early or middle May.

8. CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS OPPOSE ARMING SYRIAN REBELS

The top-ranking Republican and Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee said Sunday that they would not support arming rebels in Syria, signaling that Congress could oppose any such effort by the administration.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said it would be risky to arm the rebels, members of the Sunni Muslim population in Syria. “I think we both agree that’s probably a bad idea. Mainly because we just don’t know who they are,” Rogers said on CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked about the possibility of arming the rebels.

The United Nations estimates more than 9,000 people have been killed in the uprising that has pitted Sunni Muslims against Syria’s ruling Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam, to which President Bashar al-Assad belongs.

Rep. C.A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger (Md.), the senior Democrat on the panel, suggested Syrian defense forces could give weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups in retaliation or the rebels could form allegiances with terrorists, such as al Qaeda, a Sunni Muslim group, after winning power.

“They have a cadre of weapons that are very dangerous. And we are concerned, just like we were in Libya that if they – if these weapons of mass destruction, if the chemical or biological weapons get in the hands of – of terrorists or other groups, that could be very detrimental to the Middle East. But also to – to the national security of the United States,” he said. (The Hill)

9. CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS OPPOSE ARMING SYRIAN REBELS

10. ANNAN TO BRIEF UN SECURITY COUNCIL ON SYRIA PEACE PLAN

Violence is continuing in Syria as the UN and Arab League envoy, Kofi Annan, prepares to brief the Security Council on the progress of his peace plan. Activists say at least three people have been killed in an army offensive in Idlib province, and there has been fresh fighting in the city of Homs. There has also been an explosion in central Damascus, state media report.

On Sunday, Gulf Arab states agreed to pay the salaries and other costs of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA). The money, which will be distributed through the opposition Syrian National Council, is the first formal international support for the FSA. The decision was announced at a meeting in Istanbul of the “Friends of Syria” – a group of 83 countries backing political change.

Meanwhile, the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Jakob Kellenberger, is on his way to Damascus for talks about expanding aid operations and gaining access to all detainees. During his two-day visit, Mr Kellenberger plans to visit areas affected during the fighting, the ICRC said in a statement. He will also push the ICRC’s proposal for a daily two-hour ceasefire to allow aid to be delivered and the wounded to be evacuated. (BBC)

11. SAUDI KINGDOM ARMING “REBELS” IN SYRIA

Why is one of the top five most despotic nations in the world arming the “rebels” who are fighting for “democracy” in Syria? The Saudi government, a despotic nation completely under sharia law, would not arm any group fighting for democracy. The fact that the the Saudis are supplying arms to the “rebels” in Syria, should tell our government the true nature of the anti-government forces in Syria. Particularly when al-Qaeda is also arming the “rebels!” The “rebels” are for the most part religious fanatics who want to bring down the secular government and establish a purely religious state under sharia. The Saudi Kingdom is supporting the implementation of sharia law and the destruction of the Christian church in Syria, not democracy. (Religious Freedom Coalition)

12. U.S. CALLS ON IRAN TO PROVE ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM INTENDED FOR PEACEFUL MEANS

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday urged Iran to back up its declaration that Islam bars weapons of mass destruction by agreeing to a plan that would prove it does not intend to develop nuclear arms. Ahead of international talks April 13 in Istanbul on Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Clinton talked strategy with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who visited Tehran last week with other government officials.

“They were told that the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) viewed weapons of mass destruction as religiously prohibited, as against Islam,” Clinton said at a news conference. “We are meeting with the Iranians to discuss how to translate what is a stated belief into a plan of action,” she said. “It is not an abstract belief, but a government policy. That government policy can be demonstrated in a number of ways . . . The international community now wants to see actions associated with that statement of belief.” (Haaretz)

13. TURKEY TO COOPERATE WITH WEST’S SANCTIONS ON IRAN BY CUTTING OIL IMPORTS

Turkey decided to partially cooperate with the U.S. and European sanctions on Iran, and will cut its oil imports from the Islamic Republic by 20 percent. Turkey’s Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, said on Saturday that Turkey will make up for its oil imports by trading with Libya and other countries. It seems, however, that Turkey will not purchase oil from Saudi Arabia, after the kingdom refused to grant Ankara preferential conditions.

In light of Turkey’s continued refusal to implement the full extents of the sanctions, it has recently come under heavy U.S. pressure, including warnings that Turkish oil companies might bear the brunt for such inaction. According to the sanctions the U.S. is promoting, any country that does not downgrade its oil trade with Iran would face more U.S. sanctions – and despite efforts by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to include Turkey in this policy, U.S. President Barack Obama – despite a deep friendship between the countries – decided not to grant Ankara a ‘pass.’ (Haaretz)

14. MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD STRATEGIST SET TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF EGYPT

COULD EMERGE AS ENEMY OF ISRAEL.

“The Muslim Brotherhood nominated its chief strategist and financier Khairat el-Shater on Saturday as its candidate to become Egypt’s first president since Hosni Mubarak, breaking a pledge not to seek the top office and a monopoly on power,” reports the New York Times. “Because of the Brotherhood’s unrivaled grass-roots organization and popular appeal, Mr. Shater, 62, a multimillionaire business tycoon who was a political prisoner until just a year ago, immediately became a presidential front-runner. If he wins the June election, the Brotherhood, a previously outlawed Islamist group, would control the presidency, the Parliament and the committee writing the new constitution, moving toward a confrontation with Egypt’s military rulers over the country’s future. His candidacy is likely to unnerve the West and has already outraged Egyptian liberals, who wonder what other pledges of moderation the Brotherhood may abandon.

The Brotherhood is also engaged in a standoff with the military over its calls to dissolve the military-led government, and the degree of civilian oversight of the military in the new constitution. The Brotherhood’s participation also turns the election into a referendum on the role of Islamist politics in post-Arab Spring governments that is sure to resonate across the region. Mr. Shater faces Islamist rivals to his left and right – one a more liberal former Brotherhood leader, the other an ultraconservative Salafi. Indeed, the Brotherhood may have entered the race in part because a win or near win by either rival Islamist would badly damage its authority as the primary voice of the Islamist movement in Egypt….An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to comment specifically on Mr. Shater but called the nomination a worrisome turn. ‘Obviously this is not good news,’ the official said. ‘The Muslim Brotherhood is no friend of Israel’s. They do not wish us well. The big question will be how pragmatic they will be once in power. It could go in either direction.’” (Joel Rosenberg’s blog from the New York Times)

15. Jerusalem Mayor aims to establish new settlement in East Jerusalem – Ha’aretz

Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat announced on Monday that he intends to promote the establishment of a new Jewish settlement in East Jerusalem. About 200 new homes are being planned for the new neighborhood, known as Kidmat Zion, on a plot of land purchased by U.S. millionaire Irving Moskowitz, a longtime patron of Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem.

16. Ministers told 300, at most, would die in Iranian attack – Jerusalem Post

In the event of an Iranian attack on Israel, less than 300 people would be killed during three weeks of non-stop fighting on multiple fronts, according to estimates delivered to the security cabinet in a briefing, Channel 10 reported on Monday.

17. Palestinian woman arrested for alleged anti-Abbas Facebook post – Ha’aretz

Palestinian rights activists said on Monday that a Palestinian university lecturer has been detained on accusations that her Facebook page insulted Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

18. Fearing Syria war, Gantz holds surprise drills - Jerusalem Post

19. Al Qaeda ‘coming soon’ to NYC, graphic warns – Fox News

A mysterious image threatening the return to New York of Al Qaeda has appeared on a handful of Arabic websites, prompting the New York police department and federal authorities to investigate. The chilling graphic, which looks like a poster for an upcoming movie, includes the English-language taunt, “Al Qaeda Coming Soon Again in New York.” NYPD spokesman Paul Browne said the image appeared in the “artwork and design” section of a murky site used as a forum for terror talk. “The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is aware of the posting and investigating its authenticity and origin,” said J. Peter Donald, spokesman for the FBI’s New York Field Office. “The FBI takes all threats seriously and at this time there is no specific or credible threat to New York.”

20. Iran vows to stick to nuclear ‘path’ – France24

Iran declared on Monday it will not be swayed from its nuclear “path” by sanctions, a week before talks with world powers that are increasingly seen as a last chance for diplomacy in its showdown with the West. The defiant words came after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Saturday that the talks between Iran and the world powers would take place April 13 and 14 in Istanbul. She and US President Barack Obama have both publicly said that the window for diplomacy in the standoff over Iran’s nuclear programme is closing. “Our policy is one of prevention, not containment,” Clinton said in Saudi Arabia after talks with her Gulf Arab counterparts.

21. Oliver North: Obama Will Risk Israel’s Security to Win Re-election – NewsMax

Lt. Col. Oliver North says the administration will do everything it can to avoid an Israeli attack on a potentially nuclear Iran in order to keep President Barack Obama “out of trouble until November.” North also told Fox News’ Sean Hannity Monday the administration has a “naive utopian hope” that Israel and the Palestinians can reach a peace accord, thereby ending the worldwide Islamist extremist threat.

22. Alarms go off across Israel; IDF says investigating technical error – Ha’aretz

Thousands of concerned citizens called the police on Monday after alarms emitting the wailing sound usually used to signal an impending attack sounded across Israel, including in Ashkelon, Ashdod, Ofakim, Kiryat Malachi, Ginot Shomron, Hatzor, Tiberias, Carmiel and Afula.

23. End Muslim occupation, Eldad tells Christian group – Jerusalem Post

National Union MK Arye Eldad called for the annexation of Judea and Samaria in a speech to a large group of Christian Zionists who came to the Knesset on Tuesday for the fourth Jerusalem Assembly.

24. Netanyahu to call on Abbas to return to the negotiating table – Ha’aretz

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to send a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in which he will call on him to return to the negotiating table, promptly and without preconditions.

25. Israeli-US anti-missile drill back on track – Jerusalem Post

Months after its postponement, the largest-ever Israeli-American missile defense drill is back on track with plans moving forward to hold the exercise by the end of the year in face of Iran’s continued pursuit of a nuclear capability.

26. IRAN OIL SANCTIONS

The U.S. on Friday signed off on tough new sanctions aimed at hitting Iran’s oil exports, after determining there is enough crude supplies in the world market that taking the step won’t harm U.S. allies or drive gas prices even higher.

This move gives us the ability to impose sanctions on foreign banks that continue to conduct business from Iran’s central bank, cutting them off from the financial systems of the U.S. and its allies. The U.S. and European Union have issued a string of sanctions against Iran to isolate it from the world economy and pressure Tehran to stop developing its disputed nuclear program.

Countries involved in purchasing oil from Iran can still prevent the sanctions if they significantly curtail their imports before the June 28 deadline.

Speculation about an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has helped push up oil and gas prices, which have become one of the biggest political problems for Obama’s re-election.

In clearing the way for the congressionally mandated sanctions, Obama said he made his decision after “carefully considering” a Feb. 29 Energy Information Agency report to Congress that analyzed the world’s oil supply and the impact the sanctions would have. The penalties are timed to take effect at the end of June, around the same time Europe’s embargo on Iranian oil also begins.

In a memo, Obama said he determined “that there is a sufficient supply of petroleum products from countries other than Iran to permit a significant reduction in the volume of petroleum and petroleum products purchased from Iran by or through foreign financial institutions.” He also promised to monitor the situation closely to assure that the market can continue to accommodate a reduction in purchases of oil and oil products from Iran. . .

Iran declared on Monday it will not be swayed from its nuclear “path” by sanctions, a week before talks with world powers that are increasingly seen as a last chance for diplomacy in its showdown with the West.

“The sanctions may have caused us small problems, but we will continue our path,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi vowed in an interview with the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

27. Netanyahu, Barak under fire over Machpelah house eviction – Ynet News

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are the focus of fierce criticism following the eviction of the Machpelah house in Hebron on Wednesday.

28. Netanyahu: Peace with Palestinians necessary to avoid binational state – Israel Hayom

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prepared to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas for peace talks without preconditions to avoid the possibility of Israel becoming a binational state, the Israeli leader said on Tuesday.

29. PM: Legalize status of 3 settlements – Ynet News

Amid the uproar surrounding an evacuation order of Jewish settlers from the disputed Machpelah house in Hebron, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to prevent the razing of the Ulpana neighborhood in Beit El and legalize three other settlements, Ynet reported Wednesday.

30. Israel asks US for $700 million in military aid – Ynet News

Israel has asked the United States for assistance estimated at $700 million in order to produce more Iron Dome and Magic Wand missile and rocket defense batteries, sources told Ynet on Wednesday.

31. White House admits official meetings with Muslim Brotherhood

After supporting the terrorist sponsoring Muslim Brotherhood in overthrowing several Middle Eastern governments for “democracy’s” sake, Fox and Politico report that White House officials are meeting with Muslim Brotherhood representatives. It is a well known fact that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s top aide Huma Abedin has close ties to the MB, and that several appointees to Homeland Security and the Pentagon are associated in some way with the terrorist organization. All the disclaimers have been made that the Muslim Brotherhood is no longer an advocate of violence, but of democracy. Lies all. And there are deceivers and dangerous traitors amongst America’s top echelon of leaders.

The MB creed is as follows: “Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Qur’an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.” In the Texas Holy Land Foundation trial, the MB was recognized as an unindicted co-conspirator in laundering money through charity groups to terrorists. Documents submitted to the courts contained a detailed plan for the MB to take over North America through several methods, one called “settlement.” It said, “The process of settlement is a “Civilization-Jihadist Process” with all the word means…a kind of grand Jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and “sabotaging” its miserable house…”

Yet White House spokesman Tommy Vietor told POLITICO on April 4: “Following Egypt’s revolution, we have broadened our engagement to include new and emerging political parties and actors. The meeting Tuesday with working-level NSS officials is just one in a series of meetings between US officials, members of Congress, and representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood.” White House press secretary Jay Carney refused to give names, saying, “I don’t have names. I don’t have names for you. It is a matter of fact that the Muslim Brotherhood will play a prominent role in Egypt’s political life going forward…But lower-level officials here at the NSC did have meetings with them.”

Obama’s Legacy, A Radical Muslim Egypt

Tom Chapman — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 19:09:33 +0000

White House Defends Meetings with Muslim Brotherhood

Kent Klein | White House April 05, 2012

The Obama administration is defending its Thursday meetings with members of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political party. Officials say the United States is engaging with a variety of Egypt’s emerging political actors.

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney says representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood met with mid-level officials from the U.S. National Security Agency.

On Wednesday, he described the agency officials in the meeting as “low-level.”

Carney told reporters on Thursday that it is important for the administration to meet with many Egyptian political groups, as the country’s political situation evolves after last year’s overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.

“In the aftermath of Egypt’s revolution, we have broadened our engagement to include new and emerging political parties and actors. Because it is a fact that Egypt’s political landscape has changed and the actors have become more diverse, and our engagement reflects that,” Carney said.

Carney said he did not have information on the substance of the meetings. He also had no word on whether further meetings would be scheduled, but said he expected the dialogue to continue.

The president’s spokesman gave assurances that great emphasis was placed on democracy and human rights.

“The Muslim Brotherhood will be a major player, and we are engaging because that is the appropriate and right thing to do. And we will judge all of the political actors in Egypt by their actions, by their commitment to democracy and democratic processes and protection of civil rights,” Carney said.

The Muslim Brotherhood is one of five Middle Eastern Islamist political parties taking part in meetings with U.S. officials in Washington as well as a conference organized by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Marina Ottaway, a Middle East expert at the Endowment, who helped to organize the conference, says U.S. officials are trying to learn more about the Brotherhood.

“Until the overthrow of Mubarak, the United States had an expressed policy of not talking to the Muslim Brotherhood because the Egyptian government was opposed to talking to the Muslim Brotherhood. So it is only in the last few months, essentially, that the United States has started talking to the Muslim Brothers,” she said.

Shibley Telhami is the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland. He says the Muslim Brotherhood is trying to reassure officials in Washington that it shares their commitment to democracy, civil rights and stability.

“There is a recognition across the board in the U.S., and this really is across the Republican-Democrat [U.S. political] divide, and that is that Egypt is very important for the U.S. It has been an anchor of American foreign policy in the Middle East. The stability of the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement is so important,” Telhami said.

Telhami says that another reason U.S. officials have decided to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood is the rise of Egypt’s more conservative Islamist groups.

“To everyone’s surprise, the threat to the Muslim Brotherhood ended up being less from the liberals and more from the more conservative Salafis, including their presidential candidate, who is doing far better than anyone would have expected a few weeks ago. And so, in that sense, the Muslim Brotherhood looks a little bit more moderate, I think,” Telhami said.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s presidential election commission has disqualified one Islamist candidate because his mother was an American citizen. Hazem Abu Ismail, a lawyer and preacher, was disqualified under a law that says candidates, their spouses and parents must hold only Egyptian citizenship.

Ismail used anti-U.S. rhetoric in his campaign speeches, and his departure from the race is expected to benefit the Muslim Brotherhood.

SCAF chairman Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi

Suleiman gives up presidential bid over Islamist foothold in young army elite
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 5, 2012

Former Egyptian intelligence strongman Gen. Omar Suleiman’s decision, finalized Thursday, April 5, to drop out of the presidential race in the June election shocked Washington and Jerusalem and dashed their hopes of a figure capable of halting or at least offsetting the Muslim Brotherhood’s monopoly of power in post-Mubarak Egypt. The Supreme Military Council ruling Egypt, the SCAF, concluded in a series of secret conferences that Brotherhood and radical lslamist power had become unstoppable, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report.
SCAF chairman Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi and Egyptian Chief of Staff Gen. Sami Annan confronted the generals at those meetings with two options:

1. To run Gen. Suleiman as the army’s candidate for president and throw all the military’s organizational and financial resources behind the bid for a ruler most of whose career had been devoted to fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and Muslim extremists: or -

2. To stand aside and let El-Shater attain the presidency. Four months after the poll, Tantawi and nearly half of the SCAF generals are due to retire. The logic behind this plan is that in July it becomes the turn of a new elite of young generals move in and take over their mission of preserving Egyptian military’s supremacy over the political system of government which will by then be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Both these proposals were rejected after Gen. Suleiman and Gen. Murad Muwafi, head of intelligence, gave the generals a dose of the new reality. No one could count on the future elite of young generals not having been secretly penetrated by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, they said. Both knew of five or six young officers who were maintaining secret ties with the Brotherhood and its presidential candidate Khaiter El-Shater.

Suleiman was therefore skeptical about his prospects. Even if he did win the election, he said, as president he would be outflanked and tied hand and foot by the combined force of the Muslim Brotherhood and their allies in the high military command.

Our sources report that the revelation of Islamist infiltration of the Egyptian officer elite came as a shock to Washington and Jerusalem, where it had been hoped that Gen. Suleiman would ride into the presidency and stall the Muslim Brotherhood’s spreading domination of Egypt.

Some senior Israeli security and intelligence officials still refuse to take Omar Suleiman’s retirement from the race as final.

Muslim Brotherhood nominated Khairat el-Shater for president

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD STRATEGIST SET TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF EGYPT: Could emerge as enemy of Israel.

Posted: April 1, 2012

More reasons to pray for the people of Egypt, and the persecuted Church in Egypt.

Indeed, the Brotherhood may have entered the race in part because a win or near win by either rival Islamist would badly damage its authority as the primary voice of the Islamist movement in Egypt….An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to comment specifically on Mr. Shater but called the nomination a worrisome turn. ‘Obviously this is not good news,’ the official said. ‘The Muslim Brotherhood is no friend of Israel’s. They do not wish us well. The big question will be how pragmatic they will be once in power. It could go in either direction.’”

Note: Egypt’s process of electing a president will begin May 23, and the winner will be announced June 21st.

Middle East at Boiling Point

Tom Chapman — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:39:56 +0000

Mohsen Rezaie, his master’s voice

Iran ducks away from nuclear talks. Moscow: Mid East at boiling point
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 4, 2012

Iranian spokesmen are maneuvering for a postponement of the nuclear negotiations with world powers set to take place April 13-14 in Istanbul, debkafile’s Iranian sources report. It is feared in Washington and Jerusalem that Tehran is working toward two goals:

To have the venue removed from Istanbul and to buy a couple more months before the diplomatic crunch, considering that the US and Israel are treating the April talks as the last chance for diplomacy to reverse Iran’s drive for a nuclear weapon. A postponement would therefore delay any military option that Israel or possibly America would choose to exercise.

The Iranians want the site moved to Moscow, Vienna or Geneva, a change opposed by Washington because it would consume several more months before the talks got started. Tehran is also signaling through Moscow that it is not prepared for the diplomatic dialogue to take place under military threat or economic sanctions.

While Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu refrained from mentioning military options in presenting his government’s three-year record Tuesday, April 3 – ignoring the three large-scale military movements afoot by the US, Russia, Turkey, Syria, Greece – and Israel itself, Moscow is talking about an imminent military conflagration as a result of the continuing US and Israeli military buildup in the Persian Gulf.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Tuesday, April 3: “The Middle East standoff could boil over into military action at any moment.” Referring to the massing of military and naval forces in the Persian Gulf, he said: The pot can explode if the diplomatic valve is not opened.”

He made no mention of the scheduled April 13-14 nuclear talks. One of the most influential figures in today’s Tehran Mohsen Rezaie was more explicit: “Given the fact that our friends in Turkey have failed to fulfill some of our agreements, the talks… had better be held in another friendly country.”

He did not specify which agreements Ankara had failed to meet, but his rejection of Istanbul as the venue for the talks was unqualified.

Strong criticism of the Erdogan government also came from a senior member of Iran’s parliamentary foreign policy and national security commission Esmaeel Kosari. He said during a visit to Azerbaijan:”Turkey serves as the United States and Israel’s messenger and mediator. The Turkish government will be hated by its citizens if it continues this role.”

In Iran’s political culture, neither of these men would have spoken without a green light from the office of the all-powerful supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Kosari’s mission in Baku was to investigate recent reports that Azerbaijan had given Israeli permission for its bases to be used by the Israeli Air Force in an attack on Iran.

Early Wednesday, April 4, Iraqi officials suddenly offered Baghdad as the venue for the forthcoming world power talks with Iran.
The US and Israel are certain to reject this offer because it would give Tehran the important edge of a key diplomatic event taking place on pro-Iranian soil.

Naval ships fill Persian Gulf

Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill DEBKAfile Special Report April 2, 2012

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2,, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. But they backed up and were in tune with the explicit threat from Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last Thursday of strong Iranian resistance to foreign intervention in Syria and vow to defend Damascus as the “center of resistance against Israel.”

Western military observers link the two statements as representing an evolving Russian-Iranian front. After their shared success in delivering Bashar Assad from the revolt against his regime, the two partners are preparing to fend off a potential strike against Tehran’s nuclear program as well as shore up Iran’s regional interests from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. They are getting set to counter two US-led steps, disclosed here by DEBKAfile:

1. Although the US-backed Friends of Syria 2, which took place Sunday, April 1, in Istanbul, offered the Syrian Free Army no direct assistance or support, Saudi Arabia and Qatar established an international fund to pay rebel fighters a regular wage. They hope to lure more officers and men into defecting from the army units loyal to Assad.

Moscow and Tehran view this step as Arab intervention in the Syrian conflict.

2. The US, Israel and Greece launched a shadowy air-naval exercise in the Mediterranean Thursday, March 29. Codenamed “Noble Dina,” it appears to range across a broad sweep of sea up to Crete and including the waters off Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel Navy bases in Haifa and Ashdod ports.

None of the participants have admitted the maneuver is taking place, nor given out details. Some sources say it will end April 5, although this is not confirmed.

Russia and Iran appear to be treating the two events as interconnected.

Our military sources infer from the unusually broad area covered by the tripartite air and navy exercise – almost the entire eastern Mediterranean – that it is designed to simulate action in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden.

Western naval sources in Naples disclose that the American, Israeli and Greek fleets are supported by a British Royal Navy flotilla cruising around the Straits of Gibraltar. They also report that the exercise is led by the USS Enterprise Strike Force. As soon as it is over, this aircraft carrier and strike group will head through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, raising the number of US aircraft carriers facing Iran to three.

Those sources also disclose that Israel contributed missile ships, submarines, fighter jets and assault helicopters to the drill.

US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran?

Tom Chapman — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 20:04:17 +0000

Analysis: US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran Ron Ben-Yishai 03.29.12 Israel News

The United States is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran: The US Administration recently shifted into high gear in its efforts to avert an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the end of the year. The flood of reports in the American media in recent weeks attests not only to the genuine US fear that Israel intends to realize its threats; moreover, it indicates that the Obama Administration has decided to take its gloves off.

Indeed, in recent weeks the Administration shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran. This “surgical strike” is undertaken via reports in the American and British media, but the campaign’s aims are fully operational: To make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF to carry out a strike, and what’s even graver, to erode the IDF’s capacity to launch such strike with minimal casualties.

The first and most important American objective is to eliminate potential operational options available to the IDF and the State of Israel. I have no intention of detailing or even hinting to the options which the US government aims to eliminate by exposing them in the media. A large part of the reports stem from false information or disinformation, and there is no reason to reveal to the Iranians what’s real and what isn’t. However, it is blatantly clear that reports in the past week alone have caused Israel substantive diplomatic damage, and possibly even military and operational damage.

Another Administration objective is to convince the Israeli public that an Iran strike (including a US attack) will not achieve even the minimum required to justify it; that is, a delay of at least 3-5 years in Iran’s nuclear program. A lengthy postponement would of course justify the suffering on Israel’s home front, while a six-month delay – as argued by a US Congress report – does not justify the risks.

The six-month figure was meant for the Israeli public, so that it would press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to avoid a strike, whose futility the Americans are trying to prove in every way possible. At the same time, the campaign aims to erode the validity of demands voiced by many members of Congress and Senate – both Democrats and Republicans – who criticize the American president’s inaction.

The Congress report published Wednesday is maligned by several inaccuracies, in terms of both analysis and information. However, this makes no difference. The aim was to make headlines in the Israeli and Washington media, rather than an in-depth analysis, which isn’t possible as Congress researchers in Washington do not have access to all the relevant information, fortunately.

Congress in Iran’s service

The third objective of the recent publications is to scare the Israeli public via an apocalyptic account of possible retaliation by Iran and its “clients.” This effort also aims to press Israeli decision-makers not to act (including the mention in the Congress report of the accurate fact that Israel’s home front is not adequately prepared to sustain a blow.) Some observers would argue that these reports are not damaging, but rather, grant the Israeli threat validity, thereby serving Western representatives in upcoming negotiations with Iran. So what’s wrong with that?

The damage has to do with the revelation of secret information and assessments that would require an expensive, risky intelligence effort for the Iranians to acquire. Indeed, the Iranians already realize that the West and Israel possess plenty of up-to-date information on Iran’s nuclear project, including centrifuge workshops in Tehran homes. The Ayatollah regime can also predict possible attack routes and methods by Israel and the US.

A map of Iran’s nuclear facilities

However, any rookie intelligence officer knows that there is a huge difference between unconfirmed estimates and solid facts or IDF aims and capabilities. Any Iranian intelligence analyst who reads the latest US Congress report or the Foreign Policy report will find invaluable information there. The overwhelming majority of the information has already been published, yet instead of forcing the Iranians to piece together all the assessments themselves, the Congress report offers them everything in one place, including detailed analysis. Fortunately, as noted, Congress researchers and those who leaked the information to them apparently have some trouble in terms of reading comprehension.

Betraying an ally

To sum up, the American publications caused the following damage:

Iran now has a decent picture of what Israel’s and America’s intelligence communities know about Tehran’s nuclear program and defense establishment, including its aerial defenses.

The Iranians now know about the indications that would be perceived by Washington and Jerusalem as a “nuclear breakthrough”. Hence, Iran can do a better job of concealment.

The reports make it more difficult to utilize certain operational options. These options, even if not considered thus far, could have been used by the US in the future, should Iran not thwart them via diplomatic and military means.

Needless to say, this is not how one should be treating an ally, even if this is a relationship between a superpower and a satellite state. The targeted assassination campaign currently undertaken by the US government also sharply contradicts President Obama’s declaration at the AIPAC Conference, whereby he and the US recognize Israel’s sovereign right to defend itself by itself. One cannot utter these words and a moment later exposes Israel’s vulnerabilities and possible strike routes to its enemies.

Indeed, there is a difference between legitimate persuasion efforts and practical steps to thwart Israeli plans and eliminate them.

For a total of seven years, I served as Yedioth Ahronoth’s reporter in Washington, so I know very well that with a few exceptions, the US Administration knows how to prevent leaks to the media if it so wishes. This is the case even when dealing with former officials, and most certainly when dealing with current government officials. What we are seeing here is not a trickle of information, but rather, a powerful current, a true flood that leaves no doubt as to the existence of an orchestrated media campaign with clear aims.

There is another interesting aspect to this story from an American point of view: In 2002, when President George W. Bush sought to embark on war in Iraq, US intelligence agencies provided him with all the “evidence” that Saddam Hussein is developing large quantities of nuclear and chemical weapons. Following the war, when no traces of such weapons were discovered in Iraq, a Congress inquiry found that US intelligence officials were so eager to satisfy their president that they cut corners and relied on unsubstantiated information.

Given American media reports in recent days, one must wonder whether history is repeating itself. Could it be that the US intelligence community is providing President Obama with what he needs for political reasons – that is, information meant to curb an Israeli or American strike on Iran?

Azerbaijan will be a platform for Israel -if not for F-15′s By Anshel Pfeffer

There are good reasons to be discussing Azerbaijan and those include the increased significance of that country in a possible Israel-Iran war scenario. Foreign Policy has a major piece today on the likelihood of airbases in the Caucasus nation being used by Israeli aircraft in a strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Besides a comprehensive account of Israel’s public and secret relationship with the Aliyev regime, the main points in the feature are the quotes of anonymous American diplomats and intelligence officials claiming that Israel has an unwritten agreement with the Azeris to use old Soviet airbases in their territory.

While this is an intriguing possibility, a cursory glance at a map hardly bears it out. A range of American military experts claim that Azeri airfields would be invaluable for Israel as it would solve some of the fuel/range issues of a 2000+km strike, they fail to address the problem of where the Israeli warplanes can fly to once they have refueled in Azerbaijan. There is no friendly route to fly back to Israel, except over Iranian or Turkish territory, hardly appealing alternatives once an attack has already been carried out and both countries will be on highest alert. Another weak point in that theory is that according to a “senior U.S. military intelligence officer” this would enable the Israeli air-force not to rely on its “pretty minimal” aerial refueling capabilities with which U.S. “military planners… are not impressed.” I wonder what this is based on, as the IAF has been developing its aerial refueling expertise for nearly fifty years and it routinely enables the combat squadrons to fly thousands of kilometers to joint exercises with NATO allies, often at similar ranges to a potential Iranian attack.

Since landing in Azerbaijan after a strike on Iran would almost certainly mean that returning these valuable aircraft to Israel would be a lengthy and complicated process, especially at a time when the IAF would certainly need them for additional missions, this doesn’t seem to make sense. Other uses proposed in the FP feature, using Azeri fields just in the case of emergency landings or using them to base search-and-rescue helicopters or reconnaissance drones, makes more sense.

While reports of Israel using old Soviet bases in Azerbaijan is a relatively new phenomena, we have been hearing similar stories for years about the Eritrean island of Dahlak where an old Soviet submarine base is reportedly in use now by the Israeli navy, perhaps in the ongoing campaign to intercept Iranian arms smuggling ships bound for Gaza and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, it may turn out that the only Israeli attack through Azerbaijan this year will be psychedelic punk-rock band Izabo since according to Haaretz’s senior columnist, Amir Oren, Tuesday night’s announcement that the U.S. Defense Department would be seeking funding for further development of Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense system, was a signal that there would be no Israeli strike on Iran this year.

But if there is to be no war for now with Iran, then maybe something with one of its proxies?